Demonetization and Impact on Food Service Industry

I have been asked this question a lot recently. I have read some references, which point that the move has been negative for the sector. However, this is a part narrative of what is happening to the sector on account of this move. I, therefore thought of sharing my perspective on the issue.

Food Service is nearly ~$100 Bn industry with majority being unorganized and non-chain. Chained which would include cafes, QSRs, Fine dining etc. would be ~5% of this but growing at 15%+ CAGR. Therefore, unorganized (hawkers, standalone shops, dhabas, street stalls) players make up the bulk share and is a section not driven necessarily by processes and standards. The impact of the recent demonetization needs to be understood with this context in mind.

Chain players to benefit in the interim: Pre demonetization, the cash to plastic ratio for chain players was on an average 35:65. However this has flipped to upward of 70% in favor of plastic. Eating out is a discretionary but an important recreational need state. Even more so, as you go down the lower pop strata towns and where cash is more dominant. Demonetization curtailed eating out in the initial few weeks especially as old notes were not accepted in Food Service Sector. However, as consumption starts getting back to normal, there is going to be shift of transactions from small mom and pop stores not equipped from a POS or Credit Card standpoint or who do not want to incur additional cost per transaction (payment gateways) to the ones who do. This should ideally benefit chain players in the interim. My estimate is, this should yield atleast a 10%+ upside in the interim for the bigger players. The sections of the chain economy where the benefit might be little muted will be fine dining and Pubs where card transactions were already 50% upward and frequency of consumption on account of high ticket is lower. What will have to be seen, is the steady state cash use and related consumer behavior in the sector in the coming months.

Sales numbers starting to add up: Pilferage in terms of sale not being registered into the book when transactions happen in cash is rampant in restaurants. This happens many times by design in smaller players. In case of chain players, this is a major control issue and is a direct sales loss to the companies. There are multiple ways which have been employed by companies but none which are full proof. The natural push given to digital payments has short circuited this positively for the companies as it takes the control out of the executive who earlier handled higher volumes of cash. My estimate is that this itself should lead to another 5 – 10% upside in the sales realization of chains. Infact, players should incentivize customers to pay through digital media to further unlock the benefit of lesser fake sales.

Delivery landscape to evolve drastically: Food aggregators, Cloud kitchens and major independent players would have been hit in the initial 2 weeks of sales. This would purely be on account of COD and lack of card machines out there. Players are trying few innovative ways with support from wallets etc. to cut through these challenges which would lead to non-adopters of digital getting converted and increasing frequency of current users. This will lead to overall increase in aggregate sales with much higher penetration of online for players who have existing online (self or aggregator) infrastructure. The ones who deliver but are not integrated on food aggregators or who are there but do not have payment gateways sorted are already on the move as they have severely been impacted. Evolution of smaller players will take time and should benefit aggregators in terms of rush of players wanting to be on their platforms and integrated aptly.

Unmasking of real business models: Pre monetization, book realization of sales made by smaller players could be far lower than real. This would allow evasion of taxes and revenue share models which support the P&L. Minimum wages also as a concept does not work in the unorganized space for lack of tracking and enforcement. On the purchasing side, lack of invoicing enables saving of VAT other taxes reducing the overall cost of purchase. The entire influx and growth of such players has also resulted in rising real estate prices and personnel costs. In terms of the chain players especially the major ones, both the sales and input costs were majorly transparent. The real costs put pressure on running profitable operations. The move to digitize payments and ensuing GST should help a level field for big players to compete effectively. Digital inflow and outflow will help unmask the real business models of smaller players and should help enforce rules. I think, this will also result in smaller players to increase their food pricing which could also affect overall consumption.

It will be interesting to see what will be the stable state utilization of digital payments and ongoing consumer behavior once cash gets into normal circulation hopefully post 31st Dec. Having said that jugaad methods are already in play and use by vendors, small players and employees to undo impacts highlighted above. I will personally be watching the space closely.

* The views, estimates and opinions expressed in this post are completely personal and not those of my employer. Further it does not represent any plans or strategies of my employer.

India’s broadband woes

India's telecom sector is often showcased as a success story in reforms, owing to the mobile revolution. Mobile phones in India have nearly reached the 470 million mark while the total number of phones crossed the half billion mark in September. However, in stark contrast, government policy on broadband and Internet penetration is now an admitted failure.
India barely reached 6.81 million subscribers in August 2009 up from 2.28 million subscribers in March 2007. Where Internet is concerned, DoT's presentation shows 14.39 million subscribers up from 9.2 million subscribers in March 2007 (see chart).

This points to a policy overhaul for increasing Internet and broadband access. Typically, broadband and Internet access go hand in hand with wireline penetration, but unlike most of the world, including developed and developing countries, India's wireline sector has remained stagnant at 38 million lines for many years. This is in sharp contrast to the fast-growing wireless or mobile phone sector. Unfortunately, however, broadband access on wireless at current data speeds in 2G has serious limitations.

Experts point out that cost of acquiring a PC in India is still high. Other challenges include prohibition of VoIP by ISP's which is awaiting Govt approval despite specific recommendations by Trai for nearly two years, and governments' inability to share its existing wireline infrastructure with private players for delivering broadband access.

Consultant Top 10 Lists

Top Ten Things a Consultant Shouldn't Tell a Client

1. That was my first guess as well, but then I really thought about it.
2. You should see the hotel I'm staying at.
3. Hey, I just realized that I was in junior high when you started working here.
4. I like this office space. I'll have them put me in here when you're gone.
5. My rental car looks nicer than that junker you're driving.
6. Sure it'll work; I learned it in business school.
7. So what do you need me to tell you?
8. Of course it's right; the spreadsheet says so.
9. I could just tell you the answer, but we're committed to a three month project.
10. What are you, stupid?

Top Ten Things You'll Never Hear from a Consultant

1. You're right; we're billing way too much for this.
2. Bet you I can go a week without saying "synergy" or "value-added".
3. How about paying us based on the success of the project?
4. This whole strategy is based on a Harvard business case I read.
5. Actually, the only difference is that we charge more than they do.
6. I don't know enough to speak intelligently about that.
7. Implementation? I only care about writing long reports.
8. I can't take the credit. It was Ed in your marketing department.
9. The problem is, you have too much work for too few people.
10. Everything looks okay to me.
    

Top Ten Things You Shouldn't Say at a Consulting Interview

1. I'm a t-shirt and jeans kind of person.
2. Do you pay overtime?
3. I hate flying.
4. I'm useless without ten hours of sleep a night.
5. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
6. Do you cover rental cars for collision?
7. Stanford taught me that working in teams is great for slackers.
8. I think three letter acronyms are for people too stupid to remember whole phrases.
9. Two words: family first.
10. Call it what you want, it still means firing people.
    

Top Ten Ways To Know You're Dating/Married To A Consultant

1. Referred to the first month of your relationship as a "diagnostic period".
2. Talks to the waiter about process flow when dinner arrives late.
3. Takes a half day at the office because, "Sunday is your day."
4. Congratulates your parents for successful value creation.
5. Tries to call room service from the bedroom.
6. Ends any argument by saying, "let's talk about this off-line."
7. Celebrates anniversary by conducting a performance review.
8. Can't be trusted with the car-too accustomed to beating up rentals.
9. Valentine's Day card has bullet points.
10. Refers to lovemaking as a "win-win".

Top Ten Ways to Know You've Got the Consulting Bug

1. Can't stop using words that don't exist.
2. Worried that he who dies with the most frequent-flyer miles wins.
3. Use so much jargon in conversation, friends think you're speaking a foreign language.
4. Constant urge to give advice on subjects you know nothing about.
5. Always-hyphenating-words-that-don't-need-to-be-hyphenated.
6. Keep seeing bullet points everywhere.
7. Can fit the thematic undercurrents of "War and Peace" into a two-by-two matrix.
8. Tired of having a social life beyond work.
9. A two-page story in Business Week is all it takes to make you an expert.
10. Firmly believe that an objective viewpoint means more than any real work experience.

Indian Telecom Market

Indian telecom market is currently the most attractive telecom market with a lot of interest being shown by foreign players.

The country was divided into 23 circles when the mobile phones were introduced in the country. Now DOT recognises Chennai as part of TN. Separate licenses were given out for each of the circles in 1994. The circles were classified as Metros, A, B or C depending upon the revenue potential for the circle with Metros & A circles expected to have the highest potential. The following table lists the current wireless penetration by Metro/

India is the now the second largest market in terms of mobile subscriber base after China but still it is at 32% teledensity and adding 10-12 million new subscribers every month.
Indian market is not only the most attractive but also the most competitive with over 7 operators in each circle and another five new operators likely to start operations in the near future. Nowhere in the world does any country have so many carriers. The dominant players are Airtel, Reliance, Vodafone, BSNL (state owned), Idea and Tata. Reliance and Tata offer CDMA technology while all the other players are in the GSM space. GSM has a 75% share of sbscribers and now even Reliance and Tata have either launched or in the process of launching nation-wide GSM services. Apart from the current players, there are several new players like Aircel, Unitech-Telenor, Shyam-Siestema, Etisalat that have got the license and spectrum to launch mobile services in several telecom circles. Shyam-Siestema is the only player to launch CDMA services while all the new operators are in the lucrative GSM space. The adjoining figure gives the market shares of the operators in India. It is a fragmented market with the biggest operator (Airtel) garnering only 24% share.

India is a predominantly prepaid market (93% of all subscribers are on prepaid) with low ARPU and high minutes of usage(MoU).The GSM ARPU is Rs 220 (~ USD 4.6) per month with a usage of 496 minutes per month in the quarter ending Dec, 2008. Similarly, CDMA ARPU stood at Rs 111 with a usage of 370 minutes per month. There is a wide disparity in the rural and urban teledensity with rural teledensity at 12% vs. urban teledensity of around 75%.

Regulatory has played a big role in development of Indian telecom market by brining in the competition at the right time and by removing bottlenecks. However, there are a few pending issues that still need to be resolved like the 3G spectrum auction and allocation, Mobile Number Portability and 2G spectrum allocation policy.

Given the low tele density in the country, the subscriber base is expected to grow at a brisk pace. Government expects the mobile base to cross 600 million by 2010 and most of the new additions are expected to come from rural areas where the mobile penetration is still low.
(All the data is sourced from COAI, AUSPI and TRAI which are the leading industry associations and regulatory bodies and ofcourse other secondary research)

Your Inbox and privacy after death

Saving that parting email from your first love in your inbox? Well, chances are, after you pass away, your spouse and the entire family will know about the long-held secret. This is because web email services like Hotmail and Gmail do not let users specify what should happen to their messages when they die. In fact, email services owned by internet giants like Google and Microsoft have a policy of keeping your data after you die and letting your next of kin or the executor of your estate access it. These services can hold tens of thousands of messages. Accounts with Gmail can hold up to 7GB — or roughly 70,000 emails with a small to medium picture attached to each and they archive the messages you’ve written as well as received. When it comes to deleting the data, Microsoft’s Hotmail will remove an account if it is inactive for 270 days, while Gmail leaves the responsibility to the next of kin. Of the top three providers, only Yahoo refuses to supply emails to anyone after the user has died. The user’s next of kin can ask for the account to be closed, but cannot gain access to it. A Yahoo spokesperson said the only exception to this rule would be if the user specified otherwise in their will. Meanwhile, social-networking site Facebook has recently publicised a feature called memorialisation that lets the family of deceased users keep their profile page online as a virtual tribute. MySpace, on the other hand, says it addresses the issue of family access to sensitive data on a “case by case basis”.

4 hours from office to home, cars buses autos strewn everywhere, weather god at his fiery best, stranded & forced to have food at a road side tea joint, colony immersed in knee deep water, tip toeing in flood waters, new leather shoes screwed in T-2 days...getting under the weather again it seems and best no electricity with an early morning in offing...it’s amazing how a boring Monday evening can become so dramatic

WHAT'S HOT

One way to wield influence, is to be the dominant player in some area. Here are a few, and their niches:
--3M: Sticky notes, transparent tape.
--China Mobile: 70 percent of China's mobile phone market.
--Intuit: TurboTax has almost 80 percent of the consumer tax preparation software market.
--Microsoft: 90 percent of computer operating systems.
--Nielsen: TV ratings.
--Japan Steel Works: Ultraheavy forgings for nuclear reactor vessels.
--Jarden: Playing cards and toothpicks.
--YKK: Half of world zipper sales.

Gliding thoughts!

Ever wished that there was a cook-book for life? There could be a sweet tiramisu when you were in pain. Everything would have been ok by doing by the book. The world’s best chefs are some people who have made their own recipes and have become known for them. These were the recipes which were the first and became the last word. Many things they made, they didn’t have the slightest clue what it would be. Similar is life. You make your own recipes. Believe in them and when you strike gold; the world will know you by these very great actions. Believe in the recipe of life that you want to achieve. No problem if you fail. At least you tried. What’s wrong in failing anyways? Everyone does. But one day you will be able to show the world how your tiramisu tastes, the recipe for your life. Good or bad you should not care much.

Quality awareness about Indian Brands- Research Paper

"Local brands show what we are; global brands show what we want to be." – Consumer Insight

There is a general agreement that source of prowess of successful companies is the presence of big brands in their portfolio. Every company wants to create & own the ageless brands & does spend a lot of money towards this objective. Yet, many top executives are not very comfortable with following a structured approach to branding.

Our research on the past successful and unsuccessful brands says otherwise. On a careful inspection successful brands show a lot of common threads. These commonalities led us to model the consumer behavior model that is the ultimate reason for the existence of any brand. Kevin Keller captures the essence of branding when he says “A brand resides in the minds of consumers”. A brand should move beyond its physical character to acquire a perceptual character hence representing itself as a means to achieve what is sought by a customer.

In this paper, we start by discussing what a brand is from the perspectives of the organization as well as the consumer. This gives us the foundation for building the models subsequently. Next we build a model for consumer decision making process and bring in the perspective of the Indian brands vis-àvis multinational brands. We touch upon the importance of various parameters in building the Indian brands and stress upon them with relevant examples. It’s not just the initial creation of a brand but the reinforcements, evolution and revitalization that ultimately decides the winners in marketplace.

We have also conducted a primary survey to analyze the quality perception and understand the
consumer behavior and hence, help us arrive at the model. We conclude the paper by discussing a framework which could help build the Indian brand both domestically and globally.

To see my full article, please visit:
http://www.brandcameo.org/search_result.asp?text_search=chain

Marketing of Luxury Brands

Luxury branding is a whole new ball-game altogether, both from the perspective of the marketer as well as the luxury consumer. It therefore becomes important to view it both in relation and isolation from the ‘regular’ goods marketing.

To achieve the above objective, we first look at how luxury goods are different from regular goods and then go on to explore some facets and trends of the luxury goods as well as their market and consumers. This finally sums up into a SWOT analysis of the luxury goods segment, thereby helping in obtaining a bird’s eye view of the exercise at hand.

Considering that the luxury concept has shifted to the ‘new’ meaning, we delve into that aspect to understand the drivers for luxury brands presently, as well in the time to come. This is followed by a luxury potential determination of the Indian market both in terms of quantitative growth factors as well as qualitative initiatives.

Post identification of the mindset of the Indian luxury consumer, we have conducted a synergetic strategy building exercise, in an attempt to make sure that there are actionable points, which will go on to ensure the best interplay between the 3 most important factors for a luxury brand, i.e. the product brand, the brand / reputation of the service provider and the price-value relationship of the luxury brand.

To see my full article, please visit:
http://www.brandchannel.com/papers.asp?pageno=3#top

Amen!

Tomorrow, being the death anniversary of St Valentine, lets buy pink gifts from pink gift stores; watch 2 movies so that the words pyaar or dil are cumulatively in the title about 6 times, and have an expensive but mushily meaningful dinner tonight, so that St Valentine's soul rests in peace.

What an irony....ignorant consumers and senseless consumerism has made this day into a Rs 1200 cr market in India.

God save the pups stuck in the mush muddy stupid love dipped day

George Carlin.

Isn't it amazing that George Carlin - comedian of the 70's and 80's - could write something so very eloquent...and so very appropriate. It’s something which everyone feels, experiences & observes everyday but is so hard to put in succinct words as George has done.

A Message by George Carlin:

The paradox of our time in history is that we have taller buildings but shorter tempers, wider Freeways , but narrower viewpoints. We spend more, but have less, we buy more, but enjoy less. We have bigger houses and smaller families, more conveniences, but less time. We have more degrees but less sense, more knowledge, but less judgment, more experts, yet more problems, more medicine, but less wellness.

We drink too much, smoke too much, spend too recklessly, laugh too little, drive too fast, get too angry, stay up too late, get up too tired, read too little, watch TV too much, and pray too seldom.

We have multiplied our possessions, but reduced our values. We talk too much, love too seldom, and hate too often.

We've learned how to make a living, but not a life. We've added years to life not life to years. We've been all the way to the moon and back, but have trouble crossing the street to meet a new neighbor. We conquered outer space but not inner space. We've done larger things, but not better things.

We've cleaned up the air, but polluted the soul. We've conquered the atom, but not our prejudice. We write more, but learn less. We plan more, but accomplish less. We've learned to rush, but not to wait. We build more computers to hold more information, to produce more copies than ever, but we communicate less and less.

These are the times of fast foods and slow digestion, big men and small character, steep profits and shallow relationships. These are the days of two incomes but more divorce, fancier houses, but broken homes. These are days of quick trips, disposable diapers, throwaway morality, one night stands, overweight bodies, and pills that do everything from cheer, to quiet, to kill.

Haleem!!

Work from home (WFH) made me take a shot at Haleem yesterday over a sumptuous lunch. My aunt who goes for a kill every time a new recipe challenges her ego of being the best cook made me try it. In true sense she learns/replicates dishes which she likes/tries outside to perfection.

Just for the starters the city of Hyderabad is known for its delectable haleem, which is available only during Ramzan. The porridge which has many pulses, wheat grain, lots of ghee and of-course meat is considered very nutritious; another reason it is considered the mainstay during the Holy month of Ramzan. The entire prep takes more than 8 hours and traditionally is cooked in the ‘bhatti’. It comes in both the sweet and salted version and is still served for breakfast in the homes of the Arabs living in Hyderabad. A vegetarian derivative of haleem has dry fruits and vegetable.

For those who would like to cook this at home; recipe is mentioned below:
Ingredients:

250 gm mutton/lamb; 1 cup wheat-soaked overnight, drained, pounded & husked;

1 tsp chili powder; 1/2 tsp turmeric; 1 tbsp channa dal- soaked for 1/2 hour; 1 tbsp moong dal-soaked for 1/2 hour; 1 tbsp masoor dal-soaked for 1/2 hour; 1 tsp coriander powder; 2 onions-sliced and fried crisp; 4 tbsp ghee; 2 tsp ginger-garlic pastesalt to taste

Method: Take a heavy-bottomed vessel and heat 8 cups of water in it. When the water starts boiling put in the drained dal, wheat and mutton along with the ginger garlic paste, coriander powder, turmeric, red chili powder and salt. Cook over slow fire till the mutton is tender then mash the mutton. To this mixture add the crushed fried onion. Heat the ghee and pour it over the Haleem. Sprinkle lemon-juice before serving - serve hot.

I would request my aunty to make the dish again and very soon, though I would like to try the sweet variant this time. My burpometer will give the Haleem 3.5/5.

SOS after OSO (Om Shanti Om)

Well today was a case study straight out of experience and not just some MBA gyan..The title 'How to sell one of trashiest Bollywood movies ever made and earn a fortune instead' explained and executed to perfection. Pure genius and hype inspite of utter shit. Om Shanti Om seemed like Oh Shit Oh no more!! Just for the record in terms of story, OSO was an utter disappointment. No strength of character. It seemed as if as few imbecile friends who in a zombie frame of mind worked on the story plot. Anything put anywhere and overall movie in disarray. I personally never liked the songs so they for me were never a face saver. The only upswing was the multi-mega -entire Bollywood(31 stars) casted ‘Deewangi Deewangi ‘ song and maybe the much hyped 6 pack Sharukh song ‘dard-e-disco’ which would have only made his son Aryan and some skin starved female fans happy. Ms. svelte Padukone hardly has a 20 minute screen presence and parts which I think any actor can do. No doubt the girl is tall and pretty but there was nothing much to her otherwise. Shreyas Talpade, I must say also had a next to nothing role. Single man movie like Chak De! India, OSO was completely driven by King Khan.

It was disappointing to know that an actor of SRK's caliber does not know which script has some sense or is a step forward. Just the other day I read his interview saying that I set my own bench marks through the movies I act in. I am sure he would have left all his fans with edge marks waiting to get out of their cinema seats out of desperation and frustration as to what crap they were being served.

This brings me to the important point that it won't be a surprise that OS still rakes in a lot of moolah. In-movie advertising by ADLABS, TAG, MAYBELINE, AUDI, NOKIA,FILMFARE and many more which I might have missed would have already paid a bomb making Farah Khan's triplets smile with full gusto inside her tummy. Ms. Padukone and Mr Shreyas Talpade would have been more grateful to get a role in this hyped movie so as to oblige Farah with a low fee's. Shahrukh Khan’s company Red Chillies Entertainment which has been under the scanner in the past would have made the entire casting bill to bare minimum. With sets and locations which were hardly expensive and glamorous,,SRK,Gauri and Farah have pulled a fast one on the public. Another reason why so many screens have been booked for OSO so that the money is churned before the truth spreads through word of mouth.

But one thing which amazes me is the audacity and conviction with which Farah khan has promoted her infuriating creation and projected it as one of the finest. Hats off to Farah for her ability to fool the audience and SRK's charisma which I am sure will make this hopeless, below par, stale movie as one of the most hyped and may be one of the highest grossers this season...I

Deep-valley of darkness

HAPPY DIWALI!!

1. The report card on the ambient air quality on last Diwali night prepared by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) highlights the plummeting peaks of noxious pollutants like Respirable Suspended Particulate Matter (PM10 - RSPM) and Nitrogen –di-Oxide (NO2) on Diwali night of 2006 as compared to the previous years. But even as the city was preparing to shower accolades to growing environmental awareness, the unexpected rise in the sulphur-di-oxide (SO2) levels shocked, exposing dark trends in the Indian cracker market.

2. If I take 4 metros with a conservative population of 6 crores. Assuming a nuclear family of 4 each, I would have 1.5 Crore families. Assuming 30% are BPL (below poverty line), I have 1.05 Crore families lighting Diya’s. Assuming 5 diya’s a family, it works out to be 5.25 Crore diya’s. Assuming one diya consumes 10 gms of medium quality oil, we have the 4 metros consuming 5,25,000 kgs of oil translating to Rs. 3.15 Crore@ Rs60/kg of oil burnt this Diwali by just the 4 metros alone. I know its too less knowing how rich a country we are…


3. Another interesting thing about Diwali is the relevance it holds now. It’s a grave question which shamefully I can also not answer. The festival of lights or the day actually Lord Krishna killed Naragasura…..guess it’s the things of the past. The Diwali which most of the people enjoy is more of card parties, extravagant show-off of self-wealth and of course holiday from work, to empty one’s pockets on social obligations and of-course to contribute to the traffics snarls. Ocean of humans under the mad ness of Diwali crazily shop and crowd every possible empty speck of the town.

4. And then there are sweets and more sweets and sweets which do not end the rest of the season. Hygiene, health and quality of ingredients are key issues here. From diesel to chalk powder - just about anything can end up in mawa, which is an essential ingredient for north Indian sweets. Hygiene is another major issue. Just yesterday I went to my colony market to collect 1 kg pack of milk cake much against my wish. And there the much famous local sweetshop help was busy alternatively rubbing read cleaning his hands on his groin and filling the innumerable boxes which lay in front of him. Flies on mawa and khoya being kneaded with bare hands just beside a drain are sights common around this time…which raises the important question as to where are the health inspectors?

Well the above views are just observations which atleast made me ponder and in no way, I think go against the Diwali spirit or any others POV. But I honestly hope that atleast next year GOI should ban manufacturing and sale of crackers or atleast have some sort of regulation on the noise and pollution levels. Even though the impact of Diwali pollution is short term, given the scale and magnitude of bursting of crackers it is important that the regulators monitor and set benchmark to minimize hazards.As for the sweets, shopping and festivities ….well I would say…….it will be Happy Diwali always…I

Net-worked-up

I thought this was it...but then my friends and my close cousin made me find another new networking site 'Facebook'. Though I might be outdated in getting to terms with the new addictive trends seeing how my younger cousins have taken a lead over me, but then is there an end to the number of SNS's as they are called. My first impression of the entire front-end was....it’s too complicated but I am still being pushed to see through the outer shell to experience a whole new innovation which is attracting the world. I am still far from using it and will see how I like it in due course.

Sometime in my first year of MBA, I joined Orkut and Linked-In. Again I was a laggard in knowing what these were and how they worked. But my experiences with both have been great. Atleast I do not forget birthdates of my close friends not to forget how many old friends I have regained touch with. I feel amazed at the number of people from the smallest towns of the country on Orkut. But as I see and hear there appears to be a transition happening from orkut to facebook. My reasoning says that as many offices and colleges do not know about facebook vis-à-vis Orkut, people still have the freedom to use a similar platform to do things which company/college authorities feel otherwise. At the same time I think it is very important to have the right kind of people joining to enjoy the real offerings of the site. Another reason why other SNS's such as Hi5 & ryze never took off in India that much. Infact one of my seniors from college has started a concept of offline meetings of like minded people which I am sure would be a lot of fun. Though I have never attended one of them, I plan to in future.

But I feel there a lot of crap existing on many of these SNS's which is irritating as shared my many of my female friends. Many people who are +30 also share the feeling that the old ways of picking the telephone and connecting is any day better than these new amusing ways which have no utility. But this is changing as I see when I go around Linked-in. With the mélange of interfaces available one can balance utility with idle time pass. The recent valuation of Facebook which is now worth $15BN - judging from the fact that Microsoft has reportedly just bought itself a modest 1.6% chunk of the company for a staggering $240M goes to show the importance of the these sites as revenue source from ads beamed at around 48 mn users which facebook alone commands.

But I am sure I would come across many more such SNS’s in the future. Just a month back I came across Shelfari which I have “again” joined but never used and so has been Myspace which inspite of being touted s the #1 SNS is unheard in India. But as of now I am keen on exploring more of facebook...Hope to see u there soon..I

Cheers!!

Long on the whirlwind road, in your vision to be the on the other side
I see myself, closed ones and others on this daily ride
An illusion people say; a trial which humans need to pass.
Who decides who would be where on the starting grid?
Who decides who will cover a greater distance?
A world hidden in its own world, world just poignant at its fate
If life is at an equal pedestal for all, then why such vagaries.
Why a life just to fight the life around, each day a struggle
Oh I see, one of those days..............
When nothing seems all right; nothing seems to be in place
But everything is in place!!
Though out of shape and deeply rooted to give way to existing way of life.
God's a composer and no one can escape forced submission to his tunes sometimes...
Cheers to this dance floor called life….

EvolOve

A wax candle made to sublimity,
Who arcs in heat, but tries to remain firm,
Lends light bearing the hot vapor.
A beautiful vista with god’s finest milieu,
Breezy, cool, soothing embracing everywhere,
Selfless to all, patience intertwined.

She holds and speaks to you,
And you feel someone like never before.
I am blessed and surely am,
For envy of others tells me again that.

No equations for answers, No give and take,
No more certain values just because the world likes to fake.
Because truth and happiness are internal,
Need not plan life to achieve bliss .
World is a fight, I tell her,
But life is not a battle, she says,
Karma makes one who he/she is,
Values between us sometimes hardly meet.

I see I learn things everyday,
I find myself daily in the introspection that envelopes,
From the ocean that is mélange of the gods best one can offer,
I swim deeper each day to cut illusion all over.
No walls for far and wide,
She is a philosopher’s stone, a place I love to hide,
Child within, so wet,
Excess water will make her drain.

Life is a web ,you fall and learn,
Staying firm is the rule of the game.
There is a long path I need to tread,
Roadblocks I need to pass.
But cannot do all this without my critic, best friend
My source of strength, a candle lighting my way,
Sky is the limit, I am sure,
I need to be with her, that’s my life’s cure.

The writing on the WAL

Retail is going on a fast forward mode. Like telecom, energy retail sector is the next big thing. The current scenario is building up numbers or a quicker turnaround especially by players who have the scale and capability even if it means learning from your own mistakes. The most recent Reliance Ahmedabad store is an addition to the Indian retail milestones. The biggest in the country which will carry more than 95,000 products and is one of 500 planned by 2010. These further increase the fear amongst small retailers who had recently shown a lot of distaste against the entry of Wal-Mart into India through the JV with Bharti. The fears revolve around from the fact that in other countries where these big retailers have entered they have totally destabilized local retailers.

Another relevant fear is that the modern retailers might adopt predatory pricing with the sole aim of gaining into ever increasing organized retail with a emphasis on volume than value. This is actually a real fear, because one can see that because of stores like Big Apple, Spinach, 6-10 the rehri waala’s value add would be reduced to the convenience factor that they might be able to provide. In the neighborhood where I stay stores such as 6-10 have completely sucked out the air out of the local vendors. The F&V are not only fresh but they are really cheaper then the local guys. People might question that the stores have crowded aisles and might have a mix of both fresh and damaged crop .Though it’s a fact but the current king of Retail Kishore Biyani has some other opinions. An entrepreneur who is known to be driven more by guts then excel sheets and numbers, his recent modification of a Mumbai store proves this point wrong. Kishore Biyani has adapted India’s culture of order-in-disorder to transform his company Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd. into the largest retailer in the country.Biyani’s shopping malls are crowded and Indians love them. Unlike Americans, Indians prefer crowded places where they can hear and smell each other. Kishore Biyani, recently spent $50,000 to improve his Mumbai store. The wide aisles and neatly-stocked shelves modeled after Western supermarkets just weren't doing the trick. Now thanks to Biyani's remodeling, the store is messier, noisier and cramped—a more familiar environment for customers accustomed to fighting their way through chaotic street markets. Narrow, winding aisles were added to create traffic jams and force people to stop and look at the products. Wheat, rice, and lentils are sold in large buckets so that consumers can feel and smell them to ensure their quality. Biyani even discourages his staff from straightening up after shoppers, believing that his customers are less likely to check out a product if it is in neat stacks. He even throws imperfect produce into the mix. For the average Indian, dusty and dirty produce means fresh from the farm, he says...[H]aving damaged as well as good quality produce in the same box gives customers a chance to choose and think they are getting a better deal. Haggling is still not allowed.

Reliance's new three-storey hypermarket and future similar roll-outs is the next step in this league.The most striking feature in the new outlet is the Rs.195 denim jeans something akin to Wal-Mart’s highly successful $10 jeans. Other unique offerings of RelianceMart which falls in line with the above ‘Chaos theory’ include tailoring, shoe repair, watch repair, a photo shop, gift services, laundry services, fresh bakery, ice-cream train for kids, ready-made batter, loose tea and pickles.There are apprehensions that prices of the RelianceMart chain would undercut rivals by as much as 60%. In this case of scenario others players will have to add a lot of value on price and quality to compete. The Bharti-Walmart stores on the other hand are not open to retail shoppers but will serve small shops, fruit and vegetable sellers, restaurants and other businesses.

But the problems that ail this sector manifold:

1. The biggest problem facing Indian retailers and consumers is a dysfunctional supply chain. Because the market is highly fragmented--about 96% of the retail marketplace consists of small shopkeepers--economies of scale are elusive and both producers and retailers depend on long chains of middlemen to bring goods to market.

2. Agricultural produce typically travels from farmer to trader to commission agent to wholesaler to retailer, and each step imposes new costs. The cost escalation is huge. By one count, the amount an India consumer pays for food is five times the amount the farmer actually receives. In the U.S., the ratio is closer to twice. Waste is also a problem--about 60% of the value of India's agricultural output is lost between farm and market, as processing delays and "wear and tear" on delicate produce takes their toll on quality.

3. Indian has also yet to match America's feat of creating a single internal market for consumer and agricultural goods. Each state imposes its own inspection requirements, duties and regulations on shipments that cross its borders, even en route to another state. In the U.S., a trucker can haul a load 1,000 miles in about 20 hours. The equivalent journey in India takes four to five days.

4. The existing Indian laws, which forbid multi-brand retailers from entering the country, are downplaying the potential of these players to build a huge business that can meet a tremendous need in the country.

5. Also another problem is the shortage of both real estate at affordable prices which would affect the expansion plans of retail chains as well as availability of skilled manpower.

6. There is going to be a huge demand for 3PL players at the backend. With the growing sizes of operation there is a need for new small players and they will gain prominence and fit into the bigger jigsaw. This brings one to the problem that there is a huge space for consulting in the retail space because of problems in managing the supply chain.

Ambani has said he wants to create a "virtuous circle of prosperity by bringing farmers, small shopkeepers and consumers into a win-win partnership.” Reliance says its goal is to overhaul in one swoop retailing and farming, linking them through a "state of the art" distribution system with proper cold storage and transport that will give consumers fresher food at lower prices and farmers bigger incomes. It has set an annual sales target of US$25-billion by 2011 and has said it aims to give an "international shopping experience" to consumers more used to shopping at dilapidated corner stores or at in open air markets. Organized retail has the potential to trigger socio-economic transformation on an unprecedented scale in our country and will bring about enormous spin-off benefits to the Indian economy and its various constituents. This is against critics who say that chains such as Reliance Retail and other large retail outfits will drive smaller retailers out of business. As has been said by Mukesh Ambani repeatedly the pie is big enough for all the players. The pie which is roughly equal to $370 Billion is actually a big.

It has not yet taken off and there are so many innovations which are coming . Some of these have been mentioned below:

1. Reliance is in a process to launch 700 Reliance Town Centre (RTC) in cities having population below 3 lakh. Each RTC would have a health centre, vocational training, multiplexes, retail outlets and an auto centre.

2. Kishore Biyani has recently opened up a new format store for apparels which gets all the left overs from all its other format stores and sells the collection at a throwaway price.

3. In the next few years, Reliance Retail will also introduce 1600 rural business hubs (RBH) in rural areas, which could give tough time to ITC’s Choupal Sagar, Godrej Aadhar and DCM Shriram’s Hariyali Kisan Bazaar.

4. ITC is coming up with branded Rehris with in-built storage which is going to take modern retailing to your doorstep.

I am sure there are going to be many more innovations and a burgeoning need for skilled manpower in retail. But on the other hand the experience for foreign companies on the subcontinent has been less than pleasant: Retail giants Tesco and Carrefour have been deterred from entering the market and have pulled out of negotiations to launch joint ventures; others like Germany's Metro have been plagued by uncertainty and troublesome government regulations. Though Wal-Mart is one of the best, if not the best supply chain management companies in the world. Their recent move into India as a wholesales supplier and consultant underscores this strength. Another strength it plays to is their experience and expertise in buying direct from manufacturers in the U.S. and elsewhere. This will be a similar role they would play in the Indian market, which includes somewhere in the 12 million small mom and pop type stores spread across the country.

Even with Wal-Mart it is going to be a steep learning curve, as Biyani's remodeling strategy suggests. Cracking India's retail market is going to require something different than the usual smiley faces and "always low prices. Also Wal-Mart does not have its performance in Asian countries to back is performance in the US. Even after having set up bases abroad only 16 % of its revenue is Non-US.Seiyu Ltd Japanese based subsidiary of Wal-Mart recently reported losses for 2007 which would give it six straight years in a row without a penny of profit. Questions immediately come to mind: Will Wal-Mart India face similar future .After all, it exited Germany and South Korea in 2006 after many bad financial performances in those countries. It cut its losses there and escaped from the doldrums of loss .But unlike Japan, India will not pump in money equivalent to what was put in there which was roughly more than $1 billion into Seiyu for 393 stores in Japan as foreign players are very apprehensive about changing regulations.Wal-Mart has found good headway recently in China with the Trust-Mart partnership and in India with partner Bharti, but they have yet to show their mettle in both the places. What holds in the future for the country and the retail players is yet to be seen but is something which is definitely going to be one fast paced ride ...I

Bum Bumm Bhole

The Delhi roads have been painted orange with Kanwarias sweeping across the Delhi roads. As the ritual to offer holy water in Shiva temples starts across northern India from Saturday, the chaos on city roads which has been going on for the last so many days should hopefully end.

The recent destruction brought about hundreds of Kanwarias makes one believe that India is actually a country of fools who would do anything in the name of religion. Best is even that government machinery is a helpless spectator in this. Though I am not against anyone’s religious sentiments I beg to differ that the gods appreciate senseless waste of public money and time on this entire event then other constructive use of the same. In retrospect I think that many villages, civic amenities and value could have been created by constructive use of innumerable Kanwarias physical effort, which is spent in treading the path from the holy Ganges to the Shiva temples.

You see these people in their own frenzy completely forgetful of rules and general code of existence. Its their power in numbers and religion which makes them run amok across cities, roads etc. I was amused to see yesterday a traffic cop helping 3 helmet less guys on a motorcycle to stand up after they had skipped the red light and banged into a car. As it is, the administration in each part of the city are given orders to avoid any untoward incident even if it means pacifying the most unreasonable demands of hordes of Kanwarias in their region. The movement of Kanwarias keeps the administration and police officers on tenterhooks. With a history of generating violence, at times without any provocation have rendered the entire yatra a bad name.

While the Kanwarias had their leisurely walk to their destinations, the traffic along the Haridwar-Delhi highway came to a standstill. Heavy vehicles were stopped to p1y and major diversions were implemented on this route from August 4. The movement of light vehicles was also stopped from August 7 on the Ghaziabad-Meerut Road. Motorists as well as commuters had a difficult time, as there were traffic diversions and roadblocks everywhere in the city .To prevent students from inconvenience, the district administration announced holidays in schools and educational institutions. What a waste of time and money.

According to a conservative estimate, more than 10 lakh Kanwarias passed through Ghaziabad on their way to Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. The number of people originating from Haridwar was estimated at a staggering 50 lakhs. Imagine 50 lakh people using this time for betterment of roadblocks at grass root level could have been able to invest 50Lakh * 8 Hours * 5 working days = 20 crore man hours. And this with the same amount of affection and help provided by the local machinery and other local associations, which provide for the stay, food, first aid etc at various nook and corner of towns. I know then Indians are Indians and certain things in the name of religion do not make sense to these devout followers. But my argument is not to say that this people are doing any wrong, as faith is ones discretion but be conscious to agree to the existence of other demons in their respective milieu and be ready with alternatives to solve them. Because without any generalizations it’s a fact that most of the people who make a part of this orange revolution are from lower SEC’s many of whom just do this for the freebies and the kicks of being a part of the gang euphoria. This further bolsters the logic of poor becoming poorer even .So it is plain necessary for these Kanwarias to realize the fact that constructive solution exists to problems existing in their surroundings (regions/strata); solutions whose root lie in these countless Kanwarias who think they would gain amelioration and prosperity by mere chanting or other rituals. But it’s a vicious cycle as Politics is fuel to fire, which in India runs on sentiments then practicality. But I guess these thoughts and viewpoints are of very few and would not resonate with even my elders. But things would be different in the future. Atleast I hope they would…I